Sunday, April 20, 2008

The mormon church is going to be the 3rd largest church in the USA in 2017.?
if growth trends stay the same, the lds church will pass the United Methodist Church in just 9 short years. —falisrm

Is this based on Rodney Stark's projection from several years ago? Stark used a simple exponential algorithm to demonstrate how fast the LDS church was reportedly growing at the time. Population studies don't work that way in real life, as even Dr. Stark will tell you. All the LDS members who ate this up should note that your church has been steadily distancing itself from the "fastest growing" fallacy for some time now. There is also a huge disparity between the church's reported membership numbers and the number who self-identify as LDS.

"The Church makes no statistical comparisons with other churches and makes no claim to be the fastest-growing Christian denomination despite frequent news media comments to that effect."
"Keeping members a challenge for LDS church"
American Religious Identification study lists Mormonism 10th in percentage growth, and shows net zero gain when comparing "in-switchers" and "out-switchers."

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